The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee has voted to keep Base Rate at 0.5%. While this announcement might not be earth-shattering news, it will be interesting to see how members voted when the minutes are issued in two week’s time. Last month the vote was split and no doubt, it was split again today but we will have to wait and see whether Andrew Sentance has garnered support for a rise of 25 basis points.

We still expect BBR to remain the same for a good while yet, however, Swap rates are on the rise which means we do expect fixed rates to start creeping up over the coming months. So, it’s a difficult call for property investors at the moment; should one stay on a low variable rate for a while longer or switch to a fixed rate? 

Those borrowers looking to get the timing right between enjoying low variable rates and switching to longer term fixed rate products should seriously consider the fixed buy to let mortgage products currently available.

In other news, the buy to let market grew by seven per cent last year, according to the latest data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders. At the end of December 2010 there were an estimated 1.3 million buy-to-let mortgages outstanding, worth £152 billion, accounting for 12 per cent of the total value (11.5 per cent by number) of mortgages outstanding.
The total value of buy-to-let lending in 2010 was £10.4 billion (22 per cent higher than in 2009), and the total number of loans advanced in the year was 102,000 (10 per cent higher than the previous year).
In the fourth quarter of 2010 there were 28,600 new buy-to-let loans advanced, worth £3 billion. This was a rise of six per cent by volume and seven per cent by value from the third quarter.

Commenting on the latest results and the outlook for the buy-to-let market, CML director general Michael Coogan commented:
"Funding remains a key constraint on growth in buy-to-let lending, but demand seems to be resilient and loan performance has improved. Looking ahead, loan performance could potentially be adversely affected by rising rent arrears or interest rate rises, but at present there is no indication of these pressures materialising in practice. There is also a strong counterbalancing growth influence on the buy-to-let market, as tenant demand seems set to remain high in the face of continuing deposit constraints to entering the owner-occupier market."

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Boarded up house in Newcastle

There are fears public cuts will force people into substandard rentals

Reporter John Sweeney discovers that by one estimate housing benefit money totalling as much as £3.5bn a year is going to private landlords deemed bad or neglectful.

In his analysis, Sweeney says the result is that some of Britain’s poor are now living in 21st century slums.


Joshua Dansky could well be Britain’s worst slum landlord.

His is a property empire funded largely through public money that he is paid from housing benefit for the poor.

Mr Dansky, who has 140 properties in Newcastle alone, has become wealthy by exploiting Britain’s critical shortage of affordable housing.

Perhaps more significant is that he is just one of a number of bad or neglectful landlords who are receiving perhaps as much as £3.5bn a year of public money through housing benefits paid to private landlords who accept poorer tenants.

While the coalition government has announced 150,000 new affordable homes will be build in Britain, cuts to social housing and the difficulty facing first time buyers when it comes to getting mortgages mean that more and more people are being forced to rent privately.

So what happens if the private landlords in question provide a terrible service?

Black mould

William Spires in Newcastle

William Spires Newcastle home has black mould and broken windows

The poor cannot sue and councils say they do not have the money or resources to devote to taking slum landlords out of the system.

Housing minister Grant Shapps said he is against one of the suggestions that has been put forward – a national register of landlords that could effectively strike off the worst landlords, prohibiting them from renting properties.

“I don’t think it will solve anything. It would certainly cause a lot of extra bureaucracy,” Mr Shapps said of the idea.

Mr Dansky, 31, is the sole director of Dreamport Ltd, whose properties are anything but dream homes.

In Benwell, one of the poorest parts of Newcastle, we met William Spires, 19, in the Dreamport Ltd house he rents. It is, in essence, a 21st century slum.

Black spot mould covers the walls, rain seeps in and windows, broken by vandals months ago, remain unfixed.

“I thought someone would come and do the damp and everything but Joshua hasn’t had anyone come out,” Mr Spires said.

A local electrician called in by Panorama to inspect the property found the electrics in a truly dangerous state.

We’re fed up with money going to landlords who absolutely shouldn’t be operating in this sector

Housing minister Grant Shapps

Steve Hamilton described the situation as dangerous, especially the fuse box, where an exposed fuse had no cap: “I cannot leave it like that, it’s dangerous. That could literally kill someone. To leave the electrics in that state is criminal.”

For the slum that William Spires is living in, the taxpayer is giving Dreamport Ltd £400 a month in housing benefit.

The young tenant has neither the money nor the life experience to take on a wealthy landlord like Mr Dansky.

‘Ripped off’

But Newcastle council has stepped forward and taken action. It has placed Mr Dansky’s company under a slum landlord exclusion zone around part of Benwell. The plan is known as selective licensing and it means that Mr Dansky cannot let any more properties in the zone.

FIND OUT MORE

Panorama

The Great Housing Rip Off?

TONIGHT 25th October, Monday, 8.30 BBC One

A council-appointed management company is now running the properties on a day-to-day basis, making improvements paid for out of the housing benefit.

But once fixed up, any remaining benefit money will be paid to Mr Dansky.

In the meantime, he can continue to rent out properties that fall outside the council’s exclusion zone.

This, said Julie Rugg, a housing policy expert at York University, demonstrates the weakness of local licensing.

If a local council decides to take action against a rogue landlord, there is nothing to stop them from moving their property business to a new area and continuing to rent to housing benefit recipients.

Peeling window frame

Some of Newcastle’s rentals owned by Dreamport are crumbling

A point demonstrated in nearby Sunderland where Jade Palin, 19, does not bother with the hot water tap when she runs a bath for her two-year-old son, Kory. The boiler in the home she rents from Joshua Dansky has not worked since she moved in eight months ago.

Jade, whose boyfriend is fighting in Afghanistan, said her landlord suggested she attempt the boiler repair work herself: “I told him to come and fix the boiler and he told us actually to unscrew the bits and do it myself.”

For Jade Palin’s damp slum, with no hot water or central heating, the taxpayer pays Mr Dansky’s Dreamport Ltd £476 a month through housing benefit.

It is not known how much public money Mr Dansky gets through renting out his substandard properties – effectively these modern slums – to housing benefit recipients. There appears to be no way of keeping track of how much public money flows to his company.

Mr Dansky declined Panorama’s request for an interview.

But Stephen Battersby, President of the Chartered Institute of Environmental Health, did put a hard number on the cost of housing benefits being paid to private landlords who are not up to standard.

“Looking at the figures, including housing condition surveys, it would be reasonable to think that about £3.5bn of housing benefit goes to what I would call neglectful landlords,” he said.

Housing Minister Grant Shapps said that is a figure that he does not dispute – but one that the government is determined to reduce.

“We think it’s abusive for tenants who are being ripped off and living in very poor conditions and we’re fed up with money going to landlords who absolutely shouldn’t be operating in this sector.”

Panorama: The Great Housing Rip-Off?, BBC One, Monday, 25 October at 2030BST then available in the UK on the BBC iPlayer.

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11 October, 2010

  • Looking for a US property bargain? You can afford to wait

David Stevenson If you’re still reeling from the record 3.6% monthly fall in British house prices in September (according to Halifax at least), then spare a thought for America’s homeowners.
At least Britain has seen a decent bounce in property values from the March 2009 lows, even if they’re now dropping again. By contrast, there’s been nothing but gloom for US homeowners for years now. The nationwide drop of 0.5% in July (the most recent official figure available), took US house prices to their lowest level since 2004.
With prices having fallen so far for so long, surely we can expect an upturn soon?
You might think so. But sadly, that doesn’t look likely right now. In fact, there’s every chance that things will get even worse…


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The US housing market appears to be picking up
If you’ve been eyeing up that California condo, you know that since the US property market peaked in mid-2006, prices have dropped by more than a third.
And the Golden State is by no means the hardest-hit by America’s ‘slow motion’ house price crash. Residents in places as far apart as Detroit and Miami have seen their homes nearly halve in value since 2005/06.
Even in New York State, which has been buoyed by the rebound in bankers’ bonuses amid Wall Street’s recovery, prices are down almost 20% from the peak. In short, the fallout from the biggest housing boom – and bust – in history is continuing.
So is there any sign of things improving? Well recently, yields on US Treasuries – US government bonds – have been dropping sharply. And the spin off is that the country’s home loan rates, which are priced off Treasuries, have also tumbled.
It means that if you’re looking to borrow money to purchase a house in the States you’d only need to pay 4.25% over 30 years. That’s a record low (it’d be a pretty attractive rate even here in the UK). And together with those huge price plunges it should, you’d think, be enough to stoke up some decent buying interest.
And indeed, it seems there’s a bit of a pick up underway. Pending home sales across the States rose by 4.3% in August, according to the National Association of Realtors (estate agents, basically). That was the second monthly rise in a row. And home loan applications in the week to 1 October climbed by 9.3%.
That’s the good news. Trouble is, the overall sales level was still 20% below last year, having plunged by a third in the two months to June. And “the spike in home loan applications pales into insignificance when set against the previous four-year decline”, says Paul Dales at Capital Economics. In fact, it’s “remarkably small given how far home loan rates have fallen”.
Why aren’t buyers rushing in?
Why aren’t people piling in? The fact is, the property market’s thunder has been well and truly stolen by the US government. Earlier this year it was handing out $8,000 tax credits to persuade first-time buyers to pile into the market. But when that ended in April, house sales hit a 15-year low.
And the trouble about this sort of incentive scheme is that it’s a one-off. It doesn’t increase demand for houses, it just brings it forward. As a result, the future supply of buyers must be reduced.
So despite record low rates, and the big collapse in prices, there simply aren’t many people lining up to buy US property.
But that’s the least of the market’s problems. Because the real issue is on the sell-side. There were an incredible four million homes sitting on realtors’ books in July. That would take more than a year to shift at the current pace of monthly sales.
Worse, 2.5m American households were going through the ‘foreclosure’ process – what we in the UK know as ‘repossessions’ – in the second quarter of this year. On top of that, 2.4m borrowers were at least 90 days overdue with their repayments.
The majority of both groups are likely to lose their homes at some point. Yet “only 20% of the homes in the foreclosure process are now on the market”, says David Rosenberg of Glusken Sheff. And “only 30% of the homes the banks have [already] repossessed are for sale at the current time”. So “there’s a wave of new supply that’s going to be hitting the market in the future”.
Sure, there have been recent headlines about admin mistakes made by several banks when home loans were taken out, meaning that some foreclosure proceedings have had to be frozen for the moment. But this will only be a stay of execution for most borrowers involved.
“The number of households that escape foreclosure due to the bad conduct of lenders is likely to be very small compared with the total number of homes at risk”, says Dales. “And a more gradual release of these homes onto the market would just mean that it takes even longer for housing supply to move back in line with demand”.

US house prices will fall further
In other words, while banks’ errors may slow down forced sales in the short term, they won’t make any difference in the longer run. And as Megan McArdle points out in The Atlantic, “the banks don’t want to get people out faster, because they can’t sell the damn houses anyway”.
“It will very likely take between three to five years to clean up the excess supply in the housing market”, says Rosenberg. “Until it reaches some balance, expect more deflation” – falling house prices – “perhaps exceeding 10% before the bottom is reached”.
And it could prove even worse than this. Oliver Chang at Morgan Stanley reckons the number of houses the banks either own now or will soon be foreclosing on is nearer to a staggering eight million. But whatever the exact figures, the bottom line is very clear: if you’re looking to pick up a house in the States, you can afford to wait.
Oh, and by the way, if you want to find out more about the outlook for prices on this side of the Atlantic, check out the latest issue of MoneyWeek magazine (if you’re not already a subscriber, get your first three issues free here).

Got a comment on this article? Leave a comment on the MoneyWeek website, here.

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A retired seller wanted to move on in her life, but her potential buyers couldn’t gain any finance.

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john(2)

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Cuts to housing benefits will have a huge impact on landlords as well as tenants.

Changes to housing benefits next year will have a massive effect on those tenants in receipt of Local Housing Allowance, and as result, on their landlords.

For property investors who specialise in letting to this specific sector of the private rented sector, now is the time to plan how you intend to deal with these changes, whether diversifying into other tenant markets, or swallowing a drop in your rental income.

What’s going to happen?

Local Housing Allowance (LHA) is paid to housing benefit recipients who live in private rented accommodation — there are currently 993,000 recipients in the UK. Under the current system LHA is set at the median average of the rents in each area.

In October 2011 the Government will reduce this figure down to the 30th percentile of the rents in any given area.

Before then there is to be another change. From April 2011 a new upper limit will be introduced for each property size, with upper limits of LHA set for each size of property, from £250 a week for a one-bed flat, £290 for a two-bed flat up to £400 for a large home of four bedrooms or more.

Why the changes?

The Government says that the measures announced will provide a fairer and more sustainable housing benefit scheme. It argues that under the current system recipients are able to live in very expensive properties in areas that most working people supporting themselves would have no prospect of being able to afford.

For example, LHA rates for large homes in central London have risen as high as £1,800 per week and rates for two-bedroom properties can exceed £300.

According to the Department for Work and Pensions a couple with one child spending a third of their gross income on accommodation would need a household income of over £45,000 a year to afford a rent of £290 a week, and would be in the top third of the household income distribution.

This clearly points to the possibility that, not only are some LHA tenants getting to live in expensive areas, but some landlords are also benefitting hugely from the current system.

Milking the system?

Many landlords who let to benefit recipients currently peg their rent at the median rate for their area — ie the maximum LHA they will be able to get. I’m not suggesting that every single landlord does this (they don’t), but there are many who admit to upping their rent when the LHA rates came in, because they knew their tenants would be able to get this level of housing benefit paid.

It’s important to remember that many of these landlords provide an invaluable service, and local authorities would be lost without them, because there is nowhere near enough council accommodation to plug the gap.

The National Landlords Association argues that landlords are not milking the system, pointing out that the average LHA award is just £113.38 per week, or £491.31 a month. It adds that from almost a million LHA tenancies fewer than 100 customers received the maximum local housing allowance rate of £1,800, and all were in the central London area.

What’s the impact of the cuts?

The Government admits that these reforms will mean that people receiving housing benefit may not be able to live in expensive city centres, but it says that the same applies to most working families who do not receive benefit.

The average loss in benefits from the cuts is estimated by the DWP to be £12 a week, or £624 a year, though this varies from £9 a week for those in Wales, the North East and Yorkshire to £22 a week in London.

So, who pays the difference?

In many areas (not just in London), housing benefit could no longer be enough to cover the actual rents being charged to those in receipt of LHA.

Remember that LHA recipients are some of the most vulnerable people in our society. Some work but earn a modest income, while many are out of work. It’s fair to say that many will not be able to make up any shortfall between the housing benefit they receive and the rent they are currently being charged.

Homelessness charity Crisis notes that a reduction in LHA levels will make it more difficult for claimants to cover their rent. It predicts that many will fall behind with their rent and get into credit card or loan debt.

So does that mean that landlords will have to drop their rents to match the new LHA levels?

Can you swallow it?

If you let just one or two properties to housing benefit recipients, or if the difference in LHA isn’t that significant, this may not be a huge issue. But for those landlords who specialise in this market, and many do, this will be a huge reduction in total rental income.

If you keep your tenants and reduce your rent you face an average £624 cut on each of your properties, and it could be much more.

Some might consider altering larger properties into multiple flats in order to maximise their allowance. A four-bed house will have a LHA cap of £400 a week, but four one-bed flats with a £250 cap each could generate £1,000 a week. It’s a long-winded way for landlords to squeeze everything they can from the system, but some will probably go down this route.

Many landlords will simply be tempted to get out of the sector, and with rental demand currently at record highs, it’s probable that you will be able to find private tenants to fill your properties.

If your accommodation is of a modest standard perhaps you could target students if the location is right. Or it could be worth refurbishing your property to attract private tenants who are willing and able to pay a slightly higher rent.

Of course if landlords in more expensive areas move out of the housing benefit sector, as is expected, benefit recipients will be marginalised into poorer areas and lower quality accommodation.

Several authorities in London for example have no private rents below the new caps, and the implication is that poorer boroughs will see a flood of benefit recipients moving in because of the lower costs. Some have argued this will create ghettos of benefit claimants. And it’s the same, albeit to a lesser extent, throughout the country.

The cuts are clearly bad for landlords, and if you are impacted it’s up to you to plan your response in advance of the changes. But worse than that, they are bad for benefit recipients, some of the most vulnerable in our society. So, while I understand some landlords will be badly affected, forgive me if I don’t shed a tear for them just yet.

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Peter Alan Estate Agents – a part of Principality Building Society – have reported a 64% increase in lettings in the first half of 2010 to June 30th compared to the same period of time last year.

Young people shying away from buying a house was stated as the big factor in the surge in lettings, but the company said that property sales had also increased by 10%.

Releasing its half-year results, the company reported that Principality property businesses including Peter Alan showed income at the half year of £5m, which was up 47%, and profits of £0.8m compared with a loss of £0.2m for the same time last year.

The company said that it had completed 800 lettings agreements in the first half of the year and 1,900 house sales, while exchanges also received a boost with a 31% increase in the half year to June 30 and new instructions saw a hike of 37% to a total of 3,000.

Total sales represent a house sold every hour of each working week for the company.

Managing director of Peter Alan, Mick McGuire, said that the surge in lettings agreements signalled a trend in young adults preferring to rent rather than buy outright.

He said: “We are registering 4 times as many tenants as we have landlords with property to rent. This is particularly true in Cardiff where lifestyle changes mean that people prefer to rent closer to the city centre before considering buying when they settle down and get married later on in life.

“We see lettings as an attractive growth opportunity and we have made investments here to roll our lettings service out across our network.”

Peter Alan also reported a 37% increase in viewings across South Wales as more people turn to the web and social networking to view properties.

The firm said it had increased its market share by investing in touch screens and allowing customers to view properties via its website and is rolling out a new iPhone application.

Are you a young couple and recently bought your house? Are you trying to get on the housing ladder and having to rent?

Let us know in the comments below

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The headline yesterday on the front of the Daily Express was exactly that, “House Prices to rise by 20%”.

It sounds dramatic and optimistic, but reading on they explain this is expected over the next 4 years ie approximately 5% growth per annum.

The article continues,

House prices are set to soar by almost 20 per cent in the next four years, according to experts.

This will lift thousands of households out of negative equity, with the average family home gaining more than £30,000 in value.

The forecast defies doom-mongers who ­predicted Britain would face a double-dip ­housing recession.

Martin Gahbauer, chief economist at the Nationwide building society, said: “It’s not a double dip and it’s not a massive boom, which would not be good for the market.

People can be cautiously optimistic. If it turns out that way, it would probably lift quite a few people out of negative equity within two to three years.”

And Emma Partridge of Halifax, Britain’s ­biggest mortgage lender, said there was further good news for home owners.

She said: “Because this is happening at the same time as low interest rates, it’s providing people with the opportunity to pay more to improve their equity. And if there aren’t going to be any further drops in house prices then that enables people to bolster their equity as well.”

Last year, after house prices tumbled, almost a million households were left in negative equity, with their property’s value less than the amount they owed on their mortgage. According to the respected Centre for Economics and Business Research, a “fundamental shortage of housing supply” will steadily drive up prices this year and next, with a further five per cent increase expected in 2012.

The growth is due to continue with a 5.4 per cent increase in 2013 followed by a 3.9 per cent rise in 2014.

Based on the latest estimates, the average price of a home in Britain would rise from £179,000 at the end of 2010 to £212,000 by 2014.

The figures suggest the housing market will weather the storm of ­public spending cuts, which had raised concerns that the sector could face another downturn.

Peter Bolton King, chief executive of the National Association of Estate Agents, said: “This just shows there is confidence out there from people who should know what they’re talking about, that investing in property is good. It gives people that little bit of confidence in the UK economy.” But he warned Britain faced a shortage of homes on the market.

“Last year, fewer properties were built in this country than at any time since the Second World War,” he said. Population growth will continue but more importantly, household formations are going to continue to grow. We’re nowhere near catching up.”

The CEBR’s Consumer And Housing Prospects report, which also ­predicted the number of monthly mortgage approvals would jump from 51,000 this year to 80,000 in 2014, quelled concerns that the market was struggling to recover.

Overall this makes good reading for those investing in buy to let, who currently are finding conditions better than almost any time in the last 5 years, with higher yields and bigger discounts available than previously, giving investors more positive cashflow and more equity on day one!

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Last month, the Chancellor announced sweeping changes to the Housing Benefit system, capping Local Housing Allowance (LHA) at much lower rates than previously.

Many commentators have condemned the changes, but how will they really affect landlords?

Have your say in our survey.

Click here to take part.

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If you are looking to invest in property in the UK, you will not want to miss out on the most significant development in recent times – new fortnightly online property auctions, held at zoopla.co.uk/auctions. It’s an entirely new way to buy property from motivated sellers.

  • Dozens of new properties available at each auction
  • All properties are listed by motivated sellers
  • Assets include repossessions, new builds, etc.
  • View properties and arrange viewings online
  • Bid from the comfort and privacy of your own home/office

Fortnightly online auctions are hosted at zoopla.co.uk/auctions and operated by REDC, the world’s leading property auction firm. Event bidding starts on Thursdays at noon and ends at 6pm on Sundays.

To learn more about how to take advantage of this great new way to buy property, and to register for notification of forthcoming auction events, visit zoopla.co.uk/auctions today.

View auction listings

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